🧮 Devig Formulas
A +EV bet is a price that beats the fair odds. The devig formula decides where those fair odds come from. You pick it per +EV filter, under Devig Formula in the Devig section of the filter menu.
Which formula should I use?
- Bet Hero Consensus unless you have a reason not to. It's the default and the one we recommend.
- Pinnacle when you want every bet priced against Pinnacle's line alone.
- Custom when you want to choose the sportsbooks yourself and decide how much each one counts. It needs Pro.
| Formula | Bet Hero Consensus | Pinnacle | Custom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds come from | A weighted average of the market. Each sportsbook counts by how sharp it is for that market, and books that publish limits count more the more they let you bet. | Pinnacle's own line, devigged with your method. Lines with a max bet under $200, or with no max bet published, are skipped. | The sportsbooks you pick, each devigged on its own and weighted by the points you give it. |
| Needs Pro | No | No | Yes |
| "Must Devig To" setting | Applies | Not available | Not available |
Two things apply to all three:
- The Devig Method above the picker (Multiplicative, Additive, Power or Worst Case) is used by whichever formula you choose. With Worst Case, the fair odds are worked out with each method and the most conservative result wins.
- Pinnacle and Custom only work on +EV filters.
Custom formulas
Who can use it
Custom formulas are a Pro feature. If you leave Pro, the filter keeps its Custom formula but shows no bets until you're on Pro again.
How many you can have
Up to 5 different Custom formulas across all your filters. The same formula on several filters counts once. The devig method is part of the formula, so the same books under another method count as a second one. At the limit, the builder offers to reuse one of your formulas, or you can switch another filter to Consensus or Pinnacle.
The limits at a glance
| Setting | Range |
|---|---|
| Points per sportsbook | Just above 0, up to 1,000 |
| Rules per sportsbook | One of each kind (Max bet, Vig, Odds, Time to start, Market type) |
| Ranges per rule | Up to 4 |
| Vig for a line to count | 10% or less |
| Max disagreement | 0.5 to 25 percentage points |
| Drop outliers | 1% to 100% away from the median, needs 3 or more counting books |
| Cap books | Up to 3 |
| Veto books | Up to 3 |
| Custom formulas | 5 across all your filters |
Words the rest of this page uses
- Counts. A sportsbook counts on a bet when it quotes both sides, its vig on that market is 10% or less, and its rules leave it more than 0 points. Every condition below (minimum sportsbooks, Required, minimum points, Max disagreement, Drop outliers) looks only at the books that count.
- Operator. The company behind a sportsbook. Several books can share one operator. Two books from the same operator can't both be in one formula, and a veto book also hides the offers at its operator's other books.
- Fair chance. A book's probability for the side once its vig is removed, with your devig method. Fair odds are 1 divided by the fair chance: a 40% fair chance is fair odds of 2.50.
The starter
When you first pick Custom, Bet Hero fills in a starting formula: Pinnacle with 5 points (plus a rule that skips lines with a max bet under $200, or with no max bet published), Betfair Exchange with 3, and Smarkets, Novig and 4casters with 2 each, with at least 2 of them needed to show a bet. Together they cover soccer, tennis, basketball, American football, baseball and ice hockey. Any of them that isn't eligible at the time is left out. Edit it freely: it's a starting point.
Sportsbooks and points
Add the sportsbooks whose odds you trust and give each one points, from just above 0 up to 1,000. On every bet, each sportsbook's line is devigged on its own, and the formula's fair chance is the points-weighted average of those.
A book's share is its points divided by the points of all the books that count on that bet. When a book doesn't quote the bet, its share goes to the others.
The rest of this section uses one example formula: Pinnacle 5 points, Circa 3, BookMaker 2, with at least 2 sportsbooks needed to show a bet.
| Who quotes the bet | Pinnacle | Circa | BookMaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| All three | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Pinnacle and Circa | 62.5% | 37.5% | not counted |
If all three quote it and their fair chances are 50%, 48% and 52%, the formula's fair chance is 0.5 × 50 + 0.3 × 48 + 0.2 × 52 = 49.8%, or fair odds of 2.01.
You can add any book on the eligible list, which is updated weekly. It holds the books with a median vig of 10% or less, plus the sharp books, and the picker shows each book's median vig. If a book drops off the list, it stops counting in the formulas that have it until it's back on the list, and a formula that requires it shows no bets meanwhile.
Rules
Rules change a book's points depending on the bet. Each book can have one rule of each kind. A rule has up to 4 ranges, such as "×0 under $200, ×1 otherwise", except Market type, which has one multiplier per type. A multiplier of 0 means the book doesn't count on that bet.
| Rule | What it looks at |
|---|---|
| Max bet | The max bet the sportsbook publishes. A book that publishes none uses the No max bet published multiplier. |
| Vig | The sportsbook's vig on that market, over all three outcomes on a market with a draw. |
| Odds | The sportsbook's own odds on that side. |
| Time to start | Minutes until the event starts. Live bets skip this rule. |
| Market type | One multiplier each for main markets, period markets, player props and everything else. |
Rules multiply the points, and a book's rules multiply each other. Circa at 3 points with a Time to start rule of ×1 under 60 minutes and ×0.5 otherwise counts 1.5 points until the last hour before the start, then 3.
When a bet shows
Under Show a bet when you set three conditions. All of them look at the books that count on the bet:
- Minimum sportsbooks: how many of your books must count.
- Required: a book marked Required must count, or the bet is hidden.
- Minimum points: the books that count must add up to at least this many points.
With the example formula, a bet only Pinnacle quotes stays hidden, because 2 books must count.
Which offer the bet shows at
Each sportsbook's price on a bet is an offer, and every offer is judged against the same fair odds.
One fair price per bet. The fair odds shown at the bottom of the builder are the fair odds for the bet: the points-weighted average of every book in your formula that counts on it, after any Advanced options. Every offer on the bet, at your formula's own books or anywhere else, is judged against those fair odds. Nothing is left out, so an offer at one of your formula's books is judged against fair odds its own line is part of. The other side of the market gets its fair odds the same way, from the same books' lines for that side.
An offer then has to clear these:
- its price is 1.20 or more
- its EV is +1% or more
- it isn't at a veto book, and no veto book pays more on that side (see Veto books)
- it passes the majority rule, below
- it clears the rest of your filter, such as your EV range
The majority rule. Like Consensus, a formula skips a bet when most of the market pays more than its fair odds. The exact test: count each operator once, at its best price on that side. When the operators paying more than the fair odds are more than half of the distinct quotes on the market, the bet is hidden. With Worst Case, this check uses the highest of the three methods' fair chances.
In the feed, a bet also needs enough sportsbooks quoting the market. This is the feed's own minimum, not the formula's.
A worked example
To keep the arithmetic short, this one uses a smaller formula: Pinnacle at 3 points and Circa at 1, no rules, a minimum of 1 sportsbook and the Multiplicative method.
- Devig each book's line. Pinnacle pays 2.42 on the side and 1.58 on the other. Those imply 41.3% and 63.3%, or 104.6% together. Multiplicative scales both down so they add up to 100%: 41.3 / 104.6 = 39.5%. Circa's 2.34 and 1.66 imply 42.7% and 60.2%, which comes to 41.5%.
- Weight by points. Pinnacle has 3 of the 4 points and Circa 1: 0.75 × 39.5 + 0.25 × 41.5 = 40%. That's fair odds of 1 / 0.40 = 2.50.
- Price each offer against that 40%. EV is the fair chance times the price, minus 1. DraftKings pays 2.60: 0.40 × 2.60 - 1 = +4%. Pinnacle's own 2.42: 0.40 × 2.42 - 1 = -3.2%. Circa's own 2.34: 0.40 × 2.34 - 1 = -6.4%.
The DraftKings offer also needs no more than half the market paying over 2.50, which the preview checks, and in the feed enough sportsbooks quoting the market.
Now say DraftKings pays 2.40 instead. Pinnacle's 2.42 is now the best price, but the fair odds don't change: still 40%, or 2.50, with Pinnacle's own line in them. Pinnacle: 0.40 × 2.42 - 1 = -3.2%. DraftKings: 0.40 × 2.40 - 1 = -4%. Neither reaches +1%, so the bet doesn't show.
Markets with a draw
On a market with a draw, such as 1X2, a book's other side is its prices for the other two outcomes combined into one, so its vig is the vig over all three. Each method then devigs all three outcomes: Multiplicative gives practically the same result as devigging the three directly (the combined price is rounded to 3 decimals), Additive takes a third of the vig off each outcome, and Power solves over the three. If a book's best price for the other side comes from a separate market, such as Double Chance quoted as one price or a handicap, its line is devigged as two-way.
Example: a book pays 2.50 home, 3.40 draw and 3.00 away. Those imply 40%, 29.4% and 33.3%, or 102.7% together. Its other side for home is the draw and away combined: 29.4% + 33.3% = 62.7%, a price of 1.59. Multiplicative gives home 40 / 102.7 = 38.9%, fair odds of 2.57, practically the same as devigging the three directly. Additive takes a third of the 2.7% vig off each outcome: 40 - 0.9 = 39.1%, fair odds of 2.56.
Advanced options
The Advanced section has four optional settings, all off until you set them. On each bet they run in this order:
- Drop outliers removes books from the ones that count.
- Your show conditions and Max disagreement are checked on the books left.
- The fair odds are the points-weighted average of those books, then Cap books can raise them.
- Veto books act on each offer.
Max disagreement
Hides the bet when your counting books' fair chances, highest minus lowest, are further apart than this. It's measured in percentage points: 48% and 51% are 3 points apart. You can set 0.5 to 25.
Example: set it to 3. Fair chances of 48% and 51% are exactly 3 apart, so the bet shows. With 48% and 52% it's hidden.
Drop outliers
Skips a book whose fair chance is more than this percent away from the median of your counting books, itself included. Unlike Max disagreement, this is a relative distance, not percentage points: 58% against a median of 51% is 7 / 51 = 13.7% away. You can set 1% to 100%. It needs at least 3 counting books, and your show conditions are then checked on the books left.
Example: set it to 10%. Fair chances of 50%, 51% and 58% have a median of 51%. 58% is 13.7% away, so that book is dropped. 50% is 2% away and stays. The fair chance is then the points-weighted average of 50% and 51%.
Cap books
Up to 3 books. When a cap book's own fair odds on the bet are higher than the formula's, the formula uses the cap book's instead. A cap can only lower a bet's EV, never raise it: higher fair odds leave the price less edge.
Cap books add no books or points to your formula, and one without a line the formula can read (both sides, 10% vig or less) does nothing. A cap applies to every offer on the bet, including the cap book's own.
Example: cap with Circa. Your books put the fair chance at 52%, fair odds of 1.92. Circa's own line devigs to 50%, or 2.00. The formula uses 2.00.
Veto books
Up to 3 books. A veto book is never a place to bet, and it hides offers elsewhere when it pays more:
- Offers at the veto book, and at other books of its operator, are hidden.
- Any other offer the veto book pays more than on the same side is hidden.
The veto compares the veto book's posted price as it is, with the vig still in it. It works even when that book's vig is above 10%, and it never changes the fair odds.
Example: veto with Pinnacle. Pinnacle pays 2.15 and DraftKings 2.12, so the DraftKings offer is hidden, and so is Pinnacle's own: the bet doesn't show. If Pinnacle paid 2.12, the DraftKings offer would show.
Cap and veto books come from the same eligible list as your formula's books.
Preview
Open Preview in the builder to try your formula on a made-up bet.
- Set the Market and Starts in (min). Leave the minutes empty for a live bet.
- Enter each book's Odds and Opposite odds, or turn off Quotes it for a book that doesn't quote the bet. A book with a Max bet rule also gets a Max bet field.
- You'll see each book's fair odds and share, the formula's fair odds, and tags on dropped outliers, cap books and veto books.
Every book in the preview is also a place to bet. DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM are there to start, and Add sportsbook adds any other book, including ones that can't be in a formula.
Reading the rows
Rows are sorted by odds, highest first, with books that don't quote the bet last. Each row shows:
- Fair: that book's own odds with the vig removed. It's there for reference.
- EV: the EV of that book's offer against the formula's fair odds, the same fair odds for every row. It's never measured against the row's own Fair.
- A badge: Shows on the offer the bet would show at (the highest EV among the offers that clear), Qualifies on the other offers that clear (the feed lists them in the bet's details), or Hidden, with the reason in a word when there is one: Vetoed, Under 1.20, Under +1%, Majority.
Every offer is judged against the same fair odds, so the highest price that clears is also the highest EV.
An offer shows when:
- its price is 1.20 or more
- it isn't at a veto book, and no veto book pays more on that side
- your formula's show conditions hold
- most of the market doesn't pay more than the fair odds (the majority rule)
- its EV is +1% or more
Under the rows, the preview names the best offer that shows, or the reason the bet is hidden.
What the preview leaves out
- Your filter's other settings: EV range, sportsbooks, leagues. They still apply in your feed.
- The feed's minimum number of sportsbooks quoting the market.
- Three-way lines. The preview takes two-way lines, so on a market with a draw its Additive, Power and Worst Case results can differ from the feed.
Copy, paste and reuse
The buttons above your sportsbooks:
- Copy puts the formula and its devig method on your clipboard, so you can share it. If your browser blocks the clipboard, the text opens in a box for you to select and copy.
- Paste reads a copied formula from your clipboard. If your browser blocks that, a Paste a formula box opens: paste it there and press Apply. Books that aren't on the eligible list are removed, and the message names them.
- From a filter loads the Custom formula of another of your filters. It shows up once you have one.
A pasted or loaded formula brings its devig method with it. Remember the limit of 5 different Custom formulas across your filters.
Your results
For a filter on Pinnacle or on a saved Custom formula, Your results shows how the bets you tracked with that formula did over the last 30 or 90 days, next to your Bet Hero Consensus numbers. The window goes by the event's start, not by when you tracked the bet.
- Bets: tracked bets, pending ones included.
- CLV: your average closing line value. Live bets and cash-outs are left out.
- Win rate and ROI: settled bets.
Only tracked bets count. Results belong to the formula, not the filter, so two filters on the same formula show the same results. The Consensus numbers come from your tracked +EV bets priced by Consensus.
How CLV is worked out
A formula bet's CLV comes from the same formula's fair odds at the close, counting every book in it, including the one you bet at. At the close the formula:
- keeps its rules, outliers and cap books
- ignores its show conditions, Max disagreement and veto books, so one counting book is enough
A tracked bet keeps the formula as it was when you tracked it: editing the formula later doesn't change it.
Common questions
Why do I see fewer bets than with Consensus?
A formula prices bets from the books you picked instead of the whole market, and every rule on this page can hide one. The usual reasons:
- Fewer books count than you expect. A book only counts when it quotes both sides and its vig is 10% or less, and a book that dropped off the eligible list stops counting until it's back.
- Your show conditions fail. Minimum sportsbooks, Required and minimum points each hide the bet on their own, and a Required book is also a book the bet never shows at.
- Pinnacle's max bet rule. The Pinnacle formula skips lines with a max bet under $200 or none published; the starter's Pinnacle rule skips lines with a max bet under $200.
- The majority rule: hidden when most of the market pays more than your fair odds.
- The best price is at one of your own books. Its own line is part of your fair odds, so it rarely clears +1%. See the last question below.
- An Advanced option. Max disagreement hides bets outright, Drop outliers can leave too few books for your conditions, a cap can only lower EV, and a veto hides every offer it pays more than.
- The feed's own minimum number of sportsbooks quoting the market, whatever the formula.
Why does the preview show a bet the feed doesn't?
The preview doesn't apply your filter's EV range, sportsbooks or leagues, nor the feed's minimum number of sportsbooks. On a market with a draw, it also works from two-way lines. See What the preview leaves out.
Why does a book in my formula show negative EV, or never show?
Because its own line is part of your fair odds. Every offer is judged against the same fair odds, and a book's price pays less than its own line with the vig removed whenever it carries any vig. The more of your formula's points a book holds, the closer the fair odds sit to its own, and the harder it is for its price to clear +1%. In a formula with Pinnacle alone, the fair odds are Pinnacle's own line without the vig, so Pinnacle never shows as +EV. A book in your formula can still show when your other books put the fair chance well above its own.