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❓ What is Expected Value (EV)?

Expected Value (EV) is a fundamental concept in probability and statistics that calculates the average outcome of a set of decisions if they were to be repeated multiple times. In the context of sports betting, expected value is used to predict how much money you can expect to win or lose on a bet over the long run.

Expected Value is calculated using the formula:

EV = (Winning Probability) × (Amount to Win) - (Losing Probability) × (Amount to Lose)

Why is Expected Value Important?​

Expected Value is especially crucial in sports betting for several reasons:

  1. Long-term Profitability: To be a successful bettor, you need to place bets that have a positive expected value. A positive EV indicates that over time, you will earn more money than you lose. Conversely, a negative EV means you're likely to lose money in the long run.

  2. Objective Decision Making: EV enables a more objective betting strategy. By focusing on wagers with positive EV, you eliminate emotional and subjective influence, sticking to mathematically sound decisions.

  3. Understanding Risks and Rewards: EV helps in quantifying the risks and rewards associated with each bet. By having a clear understanding of expected outcomes, you can better manage your bankroll and overall betting strategy.

Positive EV: The Key to Profitable Betting​

To be a consistently profitable bettor, it's essential to focus on bets that offer a positive expected value. A positive EV indicates that a bet is priced in such a way that the potential payout is greater than the risk.

Example of a Positive EV Bet​

Suppose you're betting on a coin flip where the bookie offers you odds of 2.10 (+110) for Heads, and you know the probability is a fair 50% (0.5) for landing on Heads:

  1. Probability of winning (Heads) = 0.50
  2. Amount won per bet = Odds × Bet amount = 2.10 × $1 = $2.10
  3. Probability of losing (Tails) = 0.50
  4. Amount lost per bet = $1
EV = (0.50 × 1.10) - (0.50 × 1) = 0.55 - 0.50 = 0.05 = 5%

With a positive EV of 5%, this indicates a profitable bet over the long term, as the profit per bet is expected to be $0.05.

Negative EV: Recipe for Losses​

A negative EV signifies that the potential losses from the bet outweigh the potential gains, meaning you will likely lose money over time.

Importance of Consistency​

Even bets with positive EV can result in short-term losses due to variance and randomness. The key is to consistently place positive EV bets over time to capture the long-term profit potential.

How Bet Hero Enhances Your Betting Success​

Bet Hero is designed to enhance your betting strategy by calculating the expected value of each bet, ensuring you only engage with positive EV opportunities.

  • True Odds Calculation: Bet Hero evaluates the true odds by comparing the odds offered by hundreds of bookmakers. By identifying discrepancies between true odds and bookie odds, Bet Hero helps uncover lucrative betting opportunities.

  • Informed Decision-Making: With Bet Hero, you can make well-informed decisions without manually scouring through endless odds. This technology streamlines the betting process, allowing you to maximize long-term profitability efficiently.

In summary, understanding and calculating Expected Value (EV) is crucial in forming a solid, sustainable betting strategy. By betting only on positive EV opportunities identified by Bet Hero, you position yourself to be a winning bettor over the long term, ensuring that your betting endeavors are profitable and rewarding.

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