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📈 Dealing With Variance

In the realm of +EV (Expected Value) betting, understanding and managing variance is crucial. Variance is an inherent part of sports betting that can obscure the long-term profitability of a strategy.

What is Variance?​

Variance refers to the statistical measure of the dispersion of bet returns from their expected value. In simpler terms, it's the difference between the expected results of your bets and the actual outcomes you experience. While a positive expected value suggests profitability over time, variance can cause significant swings, both positive and negative, in the short term.

The Impact of Variance on +EV Betting​

  1. Psychological Pressure: Losing streaks, even when betting with an edge, can lead to stress and doubt. Understanding that variance is a natural aspect of betting helps mitigate the psychological toll.

  2. Short-Term vs. Long-Term: While variance can cloud short-term outcomes, focusing on the long term helps in realizing the true potential of +EV betting. Over many bets, the actual returns should converge to the expected value as dictated by the law of large numbers.

Managing Variance with Bet Hero​

  1. Bankroll Management: Refer to our bankroll management guide for detailed information and best practices.

  2. Avoid Correlated Bets: Placing multiple correlated bets on a single event increases risk, as the outcomes are tied together. For instance, betting on a team to both win and score over 2.5 goals makes the bets interdependent.

  3. Emotional Discipline: Stay disciplined and do not chase losses. Understand that swings are natural, and as long as your bets remain +EV, variance will play out in your favor over time.

  4. Data Analysis: Utilize Bet Hero's tracker to monitor the performance of your bets. Analyze patterns and make necessary adjustments to your strategies.

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