Skip to main content

🎲 EV vs. Probability

In the world of betting, two concepts often come up: Expected Value (EV) and Probability. At first glance, probability might seem like the most important factor to consider when placing bets. However, for a sustainable long-term betting strategy, focusing on Expected Value (EV) proves to be more crucial. Let's dive into the distinctions between EV and probability and explore why EV should be your primary focus for successful betting.

Understanding Probability in Betting​

Probability in betting refers to the likelihood of a certain outcome happening. For instance, if a soccer team has a 70% probability of winning a match, it sounds like a safe bet, right? This concept is simple and intuitive; the higher the probability, the more likely that event is to happen. High-probability bets are usually associated with lower payouts because the risk is perceived as lower.

The Importance of Expected Value (EV)​

Expected Value (EV) goes beyond mere probability. It considers the profitability of bets over the long term. EV is calculated by considering the probability of each outcome and the payout associated with that outcome:

A positive EV (+EV) indicates a profitable bet, meaning that if you placed that bet numerous times, you would expect to make money on average. Conversely, a negative EV (-EV) suggests that you'd lose money in the long run.

Why EV Matters More Than Probability​

  1. Long-Term Profitability: While high probability bets win often, they may not always be profitable. If the odds offered by the bookmaker are too low relative to the actual probability, the bet is -EV, leading to potential losses over time. Conversely, even a bet with a lower probability can be profitable if it offers a high positive EV.

  2. Avoiding Misleading Perceptions: Betting strictly based on high probability can be misleading. Low-probability, high-EV bets might initially seem unattractive but can yield significant profits over the long term.

  3. Edge Over the Bookmaker: Achieving a positive EV consistently means you've found bets where the odds offered are in your favor, effectively gaining an edge over the bookmaker.

High Probability and Variance​

While chasing high-EV bets ensures long-term profitability, maintaining high probability in your betting strategy has its own benefits:

  • Reduced Variance: High-probability bets tend to have more predictable outcomes, reducing variance and smoothing out short-term fluctuations.
  • Short-Term Stability: If your priority is stable and consistent short-term results, incorporating a balance of high-probability bets can help, as long as you monitor the EV.

Conclusion​

In essence, while high-probability bets might offer the allure of frequent wins, these wins can quickly turn into losses if the bets are consistently -EV. Prioritizing bets with a positive Expected Value is the cornerstone of a successful long-term betting strategy. By leveraging EV, you ensure that you're not only betting to win frequently but also betting to win profitably over time.

Embrace the power of EV, and may your betting ventures be both strategic and rewarding!

Contents